Mainly Macro.

Simon Wren-LewisEmeritus Professor of Economics, University of Oxford

Economics & Finance · November 11, 2025 · 8 min readLabour’s Brexit Stance Is As Untenable As Their Tax PledgeIn my last post about the prospect of Labour breaking its tax pledge, I did something I don’t often do, which is indulge in some ‘I told you so's.
Economics & Finance · August 5, 2025 · 4 min readUK Growth, Productivity, and InvestmentJagjit Chadha (ex head of NIESR and now a Professor at Cambridge) and Issam Samiri have an article in the Journal of Economic Surveys that focuses on the UK’s recent productivity problem.
Economics & Finance · June 29, 2025 · 7 min readIs The Decline of Democracy Inevitable?In global terms autocracies are on the rise, and democracies are declining.
Economics & Finance · April 22, 2025 · 7 min readIs Two-Party Politics Really Dead In The UK?Rob Ford, previewing the upcoming election on 1st May in the Guardian, emphasises how the Liberal Democrats, Greens and Reform are likely to make big gains.
Economics & Finance · January 7, 2025 · 7 min readVibes For The Economy & Other ThingsAs I and many others noted after Trump won, real median household income didn’t grow nearly as much under Biden as it did during Trump’s first presidency.
Economics & Finance · November 26, 2024 · 6 min readShould Governments Protect Citizens From External Shocks To Living Standards?One of the themes in post-US election analysis, including my own, has been the shock to real income caused by recent commodity prices increases (energy and food).
Economics & Finance · October 31, 2024 · 6 min readA Budget That Points The Way But Doesn’t Get Us Very FarDid Rachel Reeves set Labour on a path to ending austerity, and making up for the lack of public investment over the last fourteen years?
Economics & Finance · October 1, 2024 · 10 min readOctober Budget 5. The UK’s Fiscal Rules: One Good And One BadOn 30th October Rachel Reeves will be setting out her first budget, rather than responding to someone else’s decisions.
Economics & Finance · September 17, 2024 · 12 min readOctober Budget 4 - Good and bad reasons to have fiscal rules, and why bad fiscal rules are worse than having no fiscal rulesI was going to write a post about current UK fiscal rules, but judging by comments I get I think I first need to set out why fiscal rules exist in the first place.
Economics & Finance · June 18, 2024 · 9 min readWhy Is This Election A Disaster For The Conservatives?The title of this post might seem like a daft question, because it has so many plausible answers.
Economics & Finance · June 11, 2024 · 7 min readThe Macroeconomic Cost of Conservative GovernmentDuring this election period there has been plenty of analysis that looks at how the economy has performed since 2010 (the IFS here for example). All show the UK performing very badly indeed.
Economics & Finance · May 28, 2024 · 10 min readInside a Macroeconomic Policy BlunderTo many readers of this blog, 1979-83 will seem like ancient history. To some of us, it was part of our formative history as adults.
Economics & Finance · April 30, 2024 · 8 min readHigh On Their Own SupplyThere was a point on the BBC’s Question Time last week where the Minister for Policing Chris Philip, who was until recently an immigration minister, asked whether the Congo is a different country…
Economics & Finance · April 23, 2024 · 7 min readThe Bernanke Review of Bank of England ForecastingMy guess is that the world is divided into two groups of people: those who are really interested in the process by which central banks decide on monetary policy, and those who are largely…
Economics & Finance · April 16, 2024 · 7 min readCould Governments Finance Deficits By Creating Money?MMTers often say that financing government spending less taxes by issuing government debt is a policy choice, because they could instead create reserves (electronic money) at commercial banks.
Economics & Finance · March 12, 2024 · 6 min readOn Maxing Out Credit Cards And Magic Money TreesKeir Starmer, in commenting on the recent Budget, said “Britain in recession, the national credit card maxed out, and despite the measures today, the highest tax burden for 70 years”.
Economics & Finance · March 7, 2024 · 7 min readHow 14 Years Have Shown The Impossibility Of Shrinking The UK StateThe Budget was predictable, and predictably boring. Hunt cut taxes, but the tax burden is still rising because of the tax increases already programmed in.
Economics & Finance · March 5, 2024 · 8 min readRishi Sunak Doesn’t Want To Talk About Islamophobia Because He Wants To Use ItLee Anderson had the Conservative Whip withdrawn because he said something wrong and didn’t apologise for it, but ministers were comically unable to say what was wrong about what he had said.
Economics & Finance · March 4, 2024 · 8 min readCurrent UK Stagnation May Have Many Causes, But One We Know About Is The UK MediaIn the UK the definition of recession used by most people is two successive quarters of falling GDP. This definition always involved a knife edge problem. If GDP fell by 0.
Economics & Finance · February 27, 2024 · 8 min readDetoxifying Government Debt, Part 3. The Truss Crisis Has No Relevance For Labour Borrowing To InvestOver the last fifteen years the UK has experienced or witnessed three crises stemming from financial markets, the Global Financial Crisis, the Eurozone crisis and Truss’s ill-fated ‘fiscal event’…
Economics & Finance · February 20, 2024 · 9 min readDetoxifying Government Debt, Part 2. Market Myths“Labour’s biggest opponent is no longer the Conservative Party. It is the bond market.” That was the first sentence I read a few days ago in an article in a respected publication.
Economics & Finance · February 13, 2024 · 7 min readDetoxifying Government Debt, Part 1: Debt Is Also An Asset.Perhaps Labour scaling back its proposed green investment is just a pre-election ploy, and will have no implications for what they do in government. Perhaps.
Economics & Finance · February 11, 2024 · 10 min readQuantifying The Continuing UK Public Spending SqueezeIn her October budget the Chancellor raised total government spending by 1.
Economics & Finance · February 6, 2024 · 8 min readOne Rule To Bring Them All, And In The Darkness Bind ThemWhat a future Labour government will be able to do in terms of repairing both our broken public services, our broken economy, and getting cheaper green energy will depend in part on its decisions…
Economics & Finance · January 30, 2024 · 9 min readThe Evolution Of The UK Conservative Party Since 1979This is in part a follow-up to my post two weeks ago, which argued that parties of the centre-right that adopt unpopular right wing economic policies are attracted to high profile socially…
Economics & Finance · January 28, 2024 · 7 min readLabour & GrowthIs this Labour government right to make achieving growth so central to its missions? Does making higher growth a central priority require Labour has a theory of growth?
Economics & Finance · January 23, 2024 · 7 min read2024 Will Be The Year UK Fiscal Policy Became A Sad JokeThe media is full of stories about tax cuts in the Budget, stories encouraged by the Chancellor. Let's put aside the fact that the country really needs better public services rather than tax cuts.
Economics & Finance · January 16, 2024 · 8 min readWhy The Centre-Right Has Helped Cause The Drift To The Far Right In Western DemocraciesThe far right now holds power in Hungary, Italy and Argentina.
Economics & Finance · January 14, 2024 · 7 min readThe Battle Of Our AgeIn my last post of 2024, I noted that the main political battles in many countries would be between on the one hand socially conservative right wing plutocratic populists and on the other centre…
Economics & Finance · January 9, 2024 · 6 min readIf The Next Government Isn’t Diverting Resources To Investment Then It Will Be Giving Up On Our FutureYou might be surprised that this blog has featured the causes and consequences of flooding over half a dozen times.
Economics & Finance · January 2, 2024 · 5 min readThe Case For Increasing Government Debt To Green The Economy Is Greater Than For Increasing Debt During The PandemicAs the chart below shows, the story of UK government debt since 1900 (as a share of GDP) is a story of crises (source).
Economics & Finance · December 19, 2023 · 8 min readHow A Labour Government Could Be The Tipping Point For Public Discussion About ImmigrationJust over a year ago I wrote about the tipping point in public support for Brexit.
Economics & Finance · December 12, 2023 · 7 min readLessons (So Far) From The Inflation Bubble Of 2021-3Inflation went up, but now it’s coming down again. Not just in the UK, but pretty well everywhere. What macroeconomic lessons can we learn from this, and what questions still remain?
Economics & Finance · December 5, 2023 · 6 min readUnofficial Lockdowns, And Sunak’s Deadly Incompetence During The PandemicIt is now well established that Rishi Sunak as Chancellor played a significant role in increasing the death toll from the pandemic on at least two occasions.
Economics & Finance · November 28, 2023 · 9 min readFiscal Failures: The UK Autumn Statement And The German Debt BrakeMany people fear debt, because they worry about the consequences of not being able to pay the interest on it, or pay it back.
Economics & Finance · November 21, 2023 · 9 min readWhy Does The Political Right Have Such A Problem With Reality, And How Should Experts Respond?The UK Supreme Court has ruled that the government’s plan to send some asylum seekers to Rwanda is illegal because the Court does not believe Rwanda to be safe for refugees.
Economics & Finance · November 14, 2023 · 7 min readCurrent UK And EU Stagnation Are In Part The Consequence Of Deficit ObsessionThe rule of thumb journalists use to define a recession, two quarters of negative GDP growth, is unhelpful in many ways. If the economy grows by 0.
Economics & Finance · November 7, 2023 · 8 min readHow Could Johnson Have Become Prime Minister?The Covid inquiry has become a trial of Boris Johnson, showing how hopeless and harmful a Prime Minister he was. If you are unconvinced, read this from Andrew Rawnsley.
Economics & Finance · October 31, 2023 · 7 min readCovid And The Unforgivable Mistakes That Cost Tens Of Thousands Of Lives In The UKAs the Covid Inquiry progresses, it is clear the government led by Boris Johnson made two catastrophic mistakes during the pandemic of 2020. The first was to do virtually nothing until late March.
Economics & Finance · October 24, 2023 · 8 min readThe Extreme Right & AusterityBrad DeLong’s invaluable Grasping Reality carries a section called ‘Very Briefly Noted’, and on 15/10/23 it had the following two items next to each other (headlines only):
Economics & Finance · October 17, 2023 · 8 min readWhat Does Being An Iron Chancellor Actually Mean?Rachel Reeves in her conference speech (text version) only mentioned the word ‘iron’ twice (‘iron discipline’ and ‘iron-clad fiscal rules’) but that and the nature of her speech was enough for the…
Economics & Finance · October 10, 2023 · 8 min readThirteen Years Of Creating Doubt & Uncertainty For UK BusinessFrance has 12 high speed train lines, and is planning to build 4 more. Spain has even more. Yet the only high speed line the UK currently has leads out of the country.
Economics & Finance · October 3, 2023 · 8 min readBraverman Is A Feature Not A Bug Of Conservative Electoral Strategy This CenturyMuch has been written about how the dividing lines of UK politics have changed from being class based to age based. As John Curtice put it just before the General Election in 2019:
Economics & Finance · September 26, 2023 · 11 min readChallenges To The Strong Golden Rule: MMT & Bond Market ParanoiaThe idea that responsible fiscal policy involves matching plans for future taxes to projected day to day government spending, often called the golden rule, has a long history.
Economics & Finance · September 19, 2023 · 8 min readDemocracy On A Knife Edge In The United StatesAsking if US democracy as we know it will survive either seems very depressing or rather melodramatic.
Economics & Finance · September 12, 2023 · 9 min readThe Next Time Someone Says The Government Cannot Borrow To Invest, Just Mention RAACKids not being able to go to their normal school because those schools are crumbling away is as good an example as any of the impact of 13 years of austerity government.
Economics & Finance · September 5, 2023 · 7 min readIt’s The Economy, But Is It Good?As Robert Saunders recently reminded us, “the economy” is a relatively recent concept.
Economics & Finance · August 29, 2023 · 6 min readAttitudes Towards RedistributionThis book by Charlotte Cavaillé is forthcoming, so this post is based on this excellent podcast, which is well worth an hour or so of your time (and/or buy the book when it’s out).
Economics & Finance · August 22, 2023 · 9 min readWage Inflation, Unemployment And What You Wish To BelieveTwo weeks ago I described how the UK’s inflation problem has now become about labour market strength and private sector wage inflation.
Economics & Finance · August 15, 2023 · 10 min readEconomics & NeoliberalismIn an idle moment I was reading through the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, as one does, I came across this paragraph from Kevin Vallier’s entry on neoliberalism:
Economics & Finance · August 8, 2023 · 7 min readWhat The United States Might Tell Us About UK InflationIf you wanted to be optimistic about UK inflation and interest rates, then at first sight looking at the US might help. Here is inflation in both countries since the start of 2022.
Economics & Finance · August 1, 2023 · 9 min readThe Farage-Coutts Affair Exemplifies The Bankruptcy Of UK Media And PoliticsFailed politician [1] loses account at exclusive bank. It’s a story with very minor human interest, and of no importance whatsoever.
Economics & Finance · July 25, 2023 · 8 min readLabour Tax And Spend Is A Question Of When, Not IfIt’s the second leg of a cup tie. Your team you support lost badly in the first leg, but in this match their opponents made a series of huge defensive errors, resulting in a number of goals for…
Economics & Finance · July 18, 2023 · 7 min readWhy Nationalisation Can Be A Gift To A Future Conservative GovernmentPolling suggests most voters think utilities should be publicly rather than privately owned, as here for example. (See also this YouGov poll.)
Economics & Finance · July 11, 2023 · 11 min readInflation And Pandemic Recoveries In Five Major EconomiesMy discussion about current inflation two weeks ago focused on the UK.
Economics & Finance · July 4, 2023 · 9 min readWhy The Conservatives Will Always Advocate Economically Damaging Socially Conservative PoliciesA constant theme of UK politics, and politics in many other countries, is how parties that are right wing on economic issues have attempted to win elections by appealing to social conservatives.
Economics & Finance · June 26, 2023 · 12 min readWishful Thinking On UK InflationI have been surprised by the extent and persistence of UK inflation over the last few months, along with many others. So what did I get wrong?
Economics & Finance · June 20, 2023 · 7 min readSunak Is Right To Fear The Covid Public Inquiry, But The Right Wing Press Will Remain Unscathed By ItMy rule of thumb for this government is if it trumpets that it’s doing something, it is probably doing the opposite.
Economics & Finance · June 13, 2023 · 7 min readThe Campaign Against Labour Borrowing To InvestOne of the positive highlights of Labour's economic plans that I discussed last week, investment of £28 billion a year in greening the economy, has been scaled back.
Economics & Finance · June 6, 2023 · 10 min readRachel Reeves’ Economic StrategyOn 23rd May Labour’s Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, gave a speech in Washington DC and published a paper entitled “Labour’s plan for a stronger economy”.
Economics & Finance · May 30, 2023 · 10 min readWhy The Conservative Stance On Immigration Made A Hard Brexit InevitableIn a recent post I discussed the UKIP insurgency, and argued that its main source was a contradiction within the strategy of the Conservative party that began soon after New Labour’s election victory.
Economics & Finance · May 23, 2023 · 7 min readNew Fiscal Rules In The Eurozone, But Unwarranted Lack Of National Sovereignty PersistsThe EU Commission has put forward proposals for the next version of fiscal rules for the Eurozone, and these have now been agreed with some amendments (see below).
Economics & Finance · May 16, 2023 · 8 min readWhy Is There Asymmetry In How Insurgent Political Voices On The Left And Right Are Treated By The Two Main Parties In The UK?The attitude of the two main parties to those further to the right (for the Conservatives) or the left (for Labour) is very different.
Economics & Finance · May 9, 2023 · 7 min readThe Tyranny of NostalgiaRussell Jones has written a history of the UK economy since the 1970s, and as narratives go this is very good.
Economics & Finance · May 2, 2023 · 5 min readWhy Deteriorating Healthcare Is A Macroeconomic Issue“Healthy People, Prosperous Lives” is the first interim report of the IPPR’s Commission on Health and Prosperity. (I am a member of the Commission, but not an author of this report.)
Economics & Finance · April 25, 2023 · 5 min readWhich OECD Country Is The Highest Social Spender?Before answering this question, we need to define what the OECD counts as social expenditure.
Economics & Finance · April 18, 2023 · 8 min readWhy Fiscal Consolidations (Spending Cuts Or Tax Increases) Don't Reduce Debt To GDP Ratios, And Why Politicians Continue To Tighten At The Wrong TimeThe claim often made for fiscal consolidations (cuts in public spending or increases in taxes) is that they are required to reduce the ratio of public sector debt to GDP.
Economics & Finance · April 11, 2023 · 7 min readThe Poor Judgements Of Nigel LawsonFor someone who has been described as the “economic brain of Thatcherism”, it was inevitable that evaluations of his career would be ideologically polarised.
Economics & Finance · April 4, 2023 · 7 min readWhat France Can Teach The UK About PensionsIf you read some of the UK headlines, it seems that France is having difficulty adjusting to the reality of longer lifespans.
Economics & Finance · March 28, 2023 · 9 min readHow Broadcasters’ Obsession With Westminster Politics Repeatedly Fails To Alert The Public About Major Policy Failures That Are Obvious To ExpertsFor many, BBC bias is straightforward. It is about government supporters running the organisation, and others being scared of the financial implications of upsetting the government.
Economics & Finance · March 21, 2023 · 7 min readWhat Can Be Done About The Chancellor Gaming His Fiscal RulesAs Chris Giles explains here, Chancellor Hunt is gaming his fiscal rules. He is not the first Conservative Chancellor to do so.
Economics & Finance · March 14, 2023 · 9 min readWill This Week's Budget Be Pre-Election Giveaways, Or Show Signs Of Strategic Thinking?To say that much of the media treats Budgets as if the government was a household is not really accurate.
Economics & Finance · March 11, 2023 · 6 min readHow The Political Right Has Used ‘Impartiality’ To First Gain Political Power, And Then Take Over The BBCThe BBC has never been completely independent of the government.
Economics & Finance · March 7, 2023 · 8 min readWhy Quantitative Easing Should Always Be With UsQuantitative Easing (QE) is not a well loved policy instrument in many quarters.
Economics & Finance · February 28, 2023 · 7 min readThe Political Economy And Worldwide Implications Of The Inflation Reduction Act In The USIn May last year I wrote about a new book by Eric Lonergan and Corinne Sawers called Supercharge Me.