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Simon Wren-Lewis

Economics & Finance

Simon Wren-Lewis

Emeritus Professor of Economics, University of Oxford

Simon Wren-Lewis is Emeritus Professor of Economics and Fellow of Merton College, University of Oxford.

Simon Wren-Lewis began his career as an economist in H.M.Treasury. In 1981 he moved to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. From 1988-1990, as Head of Macroeconomic Research, he supervised development of the Institute's domestic and world models. In 1990 he became a professor at Strathclyde University, from 1995 he was at Exeter University, and in 2007 moved to the economics department (and Merton college) at Oxford. He has published papers on a wide range of macroeconomic issues in leading academic journals.

His academic work has often had a strong policy focus. In 1989 he published, with colleagues at the National Institute, a study suggesting that an entry rate of 1.95 DM/£ into the ERM was too high. In 2002 he wrote one of the background papers for the Treasury's 2003 assessment of its five economic tests for joining EMU. He was also the principal external advisor to the Bank of England on the development of their core macroeconomic models. A long time advocate of Fiscal Councils, his 2007 proposal was influential in the formation of the UK‘s Office of Budget Responsibility.

He is the author of Mainly Macro, a blog written for both economists and non-economists which covers economics, political economy, the media and politics.

Funded Research Activities:

E.S.R.C. (£178K) New directions in monetary and fiscal policy analysis at the macroeconomic level, joint with Campbell Leith (Glasgow). Three years from November 2008.

E.S.R.C. (£147K) Reinstating Fiscal Policy as a Stabilisation Device, joint with Campbell Leith (Glasgow). Three years from October 2005. Part of the World Economy and Finance Programme. Output rated as 'outstanding' by all four referees for the ESRC.

E.S.R.C. (£50K) Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions, joint with Campbell Leith (Glasgow). Three years from April 2001. Part of the ‘Evolving Macroeconomy’ research programme.

E.S.R.C. (£80K) Innovation, Trade and the Equilibrium Exchange Rate. Two years from October 1997.

E.S.R.C. (£380 K) Development of COMPACT, a medium scale UK econometric model designed for policy analysis. Four years from October 1995.

E.S.R.C. (£225 K) A Proposal for Developing and Exploiting a Medium Scale Econometric Macromodel of the U.K. Economy. Four years from October 1991.

H.M.Treasury (£60K) Estimation of Product and Labour Market equations for the Treasury’s domestic econometric model. October 1990 to December 1992.

Leverhulme Trust (£162K: Ref. F124L) European and G3 Exchange Rate Coordination: Design, Desirability, Consequences. Three years from October 1992, with Andy Hughes Hallett and David Currie (LBS)

Institute of Public Policy Research (£30K) Work on COMPACT for articles in New Economy, 19935

E.S.R.C. Workshop/Seminar series Funding for International Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling Seminar Series 1993 and 1995/6

Education
MSc Economics, Birkbeck College, London · MA Economics, University of Cambridge
Topics
Economics · Macroeconomics · Exchange Rates · Fiscal Policy · Economic Forecasting · Economic Coverage in the Media

In the Encyclopedia75

Books1

  • The Lies We Were Told: Politics, Economics, Austerity and Brexit

Selected publications103

  1. 2014Leith, C and Wren-Lewis, S (2014), Fiscal Sustainability in a New Keynesian Model, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
  2. 2013Wren-Lewis, S (2013), Macroeconomic Stabilisation in the Eurozone: Lessons from Failure, Global Policy, Vol 4, Issue S1, pp 66-73.
  3. 2013Wren-Lewis, S (2013), Comparing the Delegation of Monetary and Fiscal Policy, in Restoring Public Debt Sustainability: The Role of Independent Fiscal Institutions ed. George Kopits, Oxford University Press.
  4. 2012Kirsanova, T and S. Wren-Lewis (2012) ‘Optimal Fiscal Feedback on Debt in an Economy with Nominal Rigidities’, Economic Journal, Vol. 122, pp 238-264
  5. 2011Wren-Lewis, S (2011) ‘Lessons from failure: fiscal policy, indulgence and ideology’; National Institute Economic Review Vol. 217(1) R31-R46
  6. 2011Calmfors, L and Wren-Lewis, S (2011), What Should Fiscal Councils Do? Economic Policy, Vol. 26(68), pp 551–765
  7. 2011Leith, C and Wren-Lewis, S (2011), Discretionary Policy in a Monetary Union with Sovereign Debt, European Economic Review, vol. 55(1), pp 93-117.
  8. 2011Wren-Lewis, S (2011) “Internal Consistency, Nominal Inertia and the Microfoundation of Macroeconomics”, Journal of Economic Methodology, Vol. 18(2) pp 129-146
  9. 2010Wren-Lewis, S. (2013) ‘Aggregate fiscal policy under the Labour government, 1997–2010’ Oxford Review of Economic Policy 29 (1): 25-46.
  10. 2010Keogh-Brown, Marcus, Wren-Lewis, Simon, Edmunds, John, Smith, Richard (2010), The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic, Health Economics, vol 19 pp 1345-1360
  11. 2010Wren-Lewis, S (2010), Macroeconomic Policy in light of the credit crunch: the return of counter-cyclical fiscal policy? Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol 26 pp 71-86
  12. 2009Kirsanova, T, Leith, C, Wren-Lewis, S (2009), Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction: The Current Consensus Assignment in the Light of Recent Developments, Economic Journal, vol 119 pp 482-496
  13. 2009Kirsanova, T, Vines, D and Wren-Lewis, S (2009), Inflation Bias with Dynamic Phillips Curves and Impatient Policy Makers, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, vol 9
  14. 2009Leith, C. and S. Wren-Lewis (2009), Taylor Rules in the Open Economy, European Economic Review, vol 53 pp 971-995
  15. 2009Wren-Lewis, S (2009), Bringing Undergraduate Macroeconomics Up To Date, in Macroeconomic Theory and macroeconomic Pedagogy, ed(s) Fontana, G and Setterfield, M, Palgrave Macmillan
  16. 2008Leith, C. and S. Wren-Lewis (2008), Interactions Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol 32 pp 2854-2882
  17. 2007Kirsanova, T, Leith, C and Wren-Lewis, S (2007), Optimal Debt Policy, and an Institutional Proposal to help in its Implementation, European Economy Economic Papers No 275, April
  18. 2007Kirsanova, T, Satchi, M, Vines, D and Wren-Lewis, S (2007), Optimal Fiscal Policy Rules in a Monetary Union, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol 39 pp 1759-1784
  19. 2007Wren-Lewis, Simon (2007), Are There Dangers in the Microfoundations Consensus?, in Is There a New Consensus in Macroeconomics?, ed(s) Arestis, Philip, Palgrave Macmillan
  20. 2006Barrisone, G., Driver, R., Wren-Lewis, S. (2006), Are Our FEERs Justified? International Journal of Money and Finance, vol 25 pp 741-759
  21. 2006Kirsanova, T, Leith, C and Wren-Lewis, S (2006), Should Central Banks Target Consumer Prices or the Exchange Rate? Economic Journal, vol 116 pp 208-231
  22. 2006Leith, C and Wren-Lewis, S (2006), Fiscal Stabilisation Policy and Fiscal Institutions, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol 21
  23. 2006Leith, C and Wren-Lewis, S. (2006), Compatability Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy under EMU, European Economic Review, vol 50 pp 1529-1556
  24. 2004Wren-Lewis, S (2004), The needed changes in bilateral equilibrium exchange rates, in Dollar Adjustment, ed(s) Bergsten, CF and Williamson, J, Institute of International Economics
  25. 2003Leith, C, Warren, P. and Wren-Lewis, S (2003), Fiscal Policy, Interest Rate Shocks and Prices, Economic Modelling, vol 20 pp 361-384
  26. 2003Wren-Lewis, S (2003), Estimates of Equilibrium Exchange Rates for Sterling against the Euro, in , ed(s) , H.M.Treasury
  27. 2003Wren-Lewis,S. (2003), The compatability between monetary and fiscal policies under EMU, in Monetary And Fiscal Policies In EMU: Interactions And Coordination, ed(s) Buti, Marco, Cambridge University Press
  28. 2003Wren-Lewis, S (2003), Changing the rules, New Economy, vol 10 pp 73-78
  29. 2002Leith,C and S.Wren-Lewis (2002), The Macroeconomic Impact of Different Speeds of Debt Stabilisation in EMU, in European Macroeconomic Policies after Monetary Unification: Fiscal Policies, Monetary Policies and Labour Markets, ed(s) R. Beetsma,
  30. 2001Leith, C. and Wren-Lewis, S. (2001), Interest Rate feedback rules in an open economy with forward looking inflation, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol 63 pp 209-232
  31. 2001Wren-Lewis, S (2001), The Economics of EMU, New Economy, vol 8 pp 3-8
  32. 2000Ireland, J. and S. Wren-Lewis (2000), Inflation Dynamics in a New Keynesian Model, Manchester School, vol 68 pp 92-112
  33. 2000Leith, C and Wren-Lewis, S (2000), Interactions Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules, Economic Journal, vol 110 pp 93-108
  34. 2000Wren-Lewis, S (2000), The Limits to Discretionary Fiscal Stabilisation Policy, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol 16 pp 92-105
  35. 2000Leith,C and S.Wren-Lewis (2000), How Tough Should Monetary Policy Be if Inflation is Forward Looking?, in Econometric Modelling: Techniques and Applications, ed(s) S.Holly and M.Weale, Cambridge University Press
  36. 2000Wren-Lewis, S (2000), Conflicts between macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis, in Empirical Models and Policy Making: Interaction and Institutions, ed(s) Frank A.G. den Butter and Mary S Morgan, Routledge
  37. 2000Wren-Lewis, S (2000), The decline in macroeconomic modelling, in Public Policy for the 21st Century, ed(s) Neil Fraser and John Hills, The Policy Press
  38. 2000Driver, R and Wren-Lewis, S (1998), Exchange Rates for the Year 2000, in , ed(s), Institute for International Economics, Washington
  39. 1999Darby, J, Ireland, J, Leith, C and Wren-Lewis, S (1999), Compact: A Rational Expectations, Intertemporal Model of the United Kingdom Economy, Economic Modelling, vol 16 pp 1-52
  40. 1999Driver, R and Wren-Lewis, S. (1999), European Monetary Union, Asymmetric Shocks and Nominal Inertia, Oxford Economic Papers, vol 51 pp 665-688
  41. 1999Driver, R and Wren-Lewis, S (1999), FEERs: a sensitivity analysis, in Equilibrium Exchange Rates, ed(s) MacDonald, R and Stein, J, Kluwer
  42. 1999Wren-Lewis,S. (1999), Many Models at the Bank of England, London Business School Economic Outlook, vol 23 pp 17-21
  43. 1998Ireland, J and Wren-Lewis, S (1998), Exchange Rates, Nominal Inertia and Inflation, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, vol 45 pp 512-527
  44. 1997Hughes Hallet, A. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1997), Is There Life Outside the ERM? An Evaluation of the Effects of Sterling's Devaluation on the UK Economy, International Journal of Finance and Economics, vol 2 pp 199-216
  45. 1997Wren-Lewis, S. (1997), The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime, Economic Journal, vol 107 pp 1157-1168
  46. 1996Wren-Lewis, S., Darby, J., Ireland, J. and Ricchi, O. (1996), The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy:Linking an econometric model with theory, Economic Journal, vol 106 pp 543-559
  47. 1996Wren-Lewis, S. (1996), Avoiding Fiscal Fudge, New Economy, vol 3
  48. 1995Hughes Hallet, A. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1995), Is There Life after the ERM: the UK experience, Economie Internationale, vol 63 pp 31-54
  49. 1995Driver, R. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1995), The Investment Game, New Economy, vol 2 pp 104-109
  50. 1995Driver, R. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1995), Obstacles to EMU, New Economy, vol 2 pp 241-246
  51. 1995Driver, R., Ireland, J., Leith, C. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1995), Why Stop the Recovery, New Economy, vol 2 pp 30-35
  52. 1994Moghadam, R. and S. Wren-Lewis (1994), Are Wages Forward Looking?, Oxford Economic Papers, vol 46 pp 403-424
  53. 1994Wren-Lewis, S. (1994), The Natural Rate in Empirical Macromodels, in The Natural Rate after Twenty Years, ed(s) R. Cross, Cambridge University Pres
  54. 1994Darby, J., Driver,R, Ireland,J and Wren-Lewis,S (1994), Controlling Credit: The Macroeconomic Implications of Reversing Financial Liberalisation, New Economy, vol 1 pp 95-100
  55. 1994Driver, R. and Wren-Lewis, S (1994), Rules of Engagement, New Economy, vol 1 pp 151-158
  56. 1994Driver, R. and Wren-Lewis,S (1994), Jobs Without Inflation, New Economy, vol 1 pp 28-35
  57. 1994Driver, R., Ireland, J. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1994), Labours Rate Crisis, New Economy, vol 1 pp 218-215
  58. 1993Darby, J and Wren-Lewis,S (1993), Is there a Cointegrating Vector for Wages?, Journal of Economic Studies, vol 20 pp 87-115
  59. 1993Westaway, P and S. Wren-Lewis (1993), Is There a Case for the MTFS?, Manchester School, vol 61 pp 227-247
  60. 1993Wren-Lewis, S. (1993), What's so Bad about Borrowing?, New Economy, vol 0 pp 41-51
  61. 1993Darby,J., Ireland,J, Ricchi,O and Wren-Lewis,S (1993), Compact Model Manual Version 1, mimeo, University of Strathclyde
  62. 1992Anderton, R., Pesaran,B and Wren-Lewis,S (1992), Imports, Output and the Demand for Manufactures, Oxford Economic Papers, vol 44 pp 175-186
  63. 1992Darby, J and Wren-Lewis,S (1992), International Trends in Manufacturing Productivity, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol 94 pp 457-477
  64. 1992Ireland, J. and S. Wren-Lewis (1992), Buffer Stock Money and the Company Sector, Oxford Economic Papers, vol 44 pp 209-231
  65. 1992Wren-Lewis, S. (1992), On the Analytical Foundations of Fundamental Equilibrium
  66. 1992Wren-Lewis, S. (1992), Between the Short and the Long Run: Vintages and the NAIRU, in Macroeconomic Modelling of the Long Run, ed(s) C. Hargreaves, Edward Elgar
  67. 1992Wren-Lewis, S. (1992), Why the Pound Should be Devalued Inside the ERM, Economic Outlook, vol 0 pp 35-38
  68. 1991Darby, J. and Wren-Lewis,S (1991), Trends in Manufacturing Labour Productivity, Oxford Economic Papers, vol 43 pp 424-442
  69. 1991Joyce, M and S Wren-Lewis (1991), The Role of the Real Exchange Rate and Capacity Utilisation in Convergence to the NAIRU, Economic Journal, vol 101 pp 497-507
  70. 1991Wren-Lewis, S., P. Westaway, S. Soteri and R. Barrell (1991), Evaluating the UK’s Choice of Entry Rate into the ERM, Manchester School Money Study Group Conference Volume., vol 59 pp 1-22
  71. 1990Currie, D. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1990), Evaluating the Extended Target Zone proposal for the G3, Economic Journal, vol 100
  72. 1990Westaway, P. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1990), Forecasting government policy: an example of the importance of Time Inconsistency, International Journal of Forecasting, vol 6 pp 401-405
  73. 1989Currie, D. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1989), Evaluating blueprints for the conduct of international macropolicy, American Economic Review, vol 79 pp 264-269
  74. 1989Currie, D. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1989), An Appraisal of Alternative Blueprints for International Policy Cooperation, European Economic Review, vol 0 pp 0-0
  75. 1989Ireland, J. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1989), Terminal dates and the dynamic properties of the National Institute’s domestic macroeconomic model, National Institute Economic Review, vol 128
  76. 1989Wren-Lewis, S. (1989), Recent developments in the Institute’s domestic macroeconomic model, National Institute Economic Review, vol 130
  77. 1989Currie, D. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1989), A comparison of alternative regimes for international macropolicy coordination, in Blueprints for Exchange Rate Management, ed(s) M. Miller, B. Eichengreen, R. Portes, Academic Press
  78. 1989Currie, D. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1989), Conflict and cooperation in international macroeconomic policy making, in Policymaking with Macroeconomic Models, ed(s) Britton, A., Gower
  79. 1989Wren-Lewis, S. (1989), National Institute Model 11 Technical Manual, mimeo, National Institute
  80. 1988Wren-Lewis, S. (1988), Supply, liquidity and credit: a new version of the Institute’s domestic econometric macromodel, National Institute Economic Review, vol 126
  81. 1988Wren-Lewis, S. (1988), GEM Technical Manual, mimeo, National Institute
  82. 1987Eastwood,F and Wren-Lewis,S (1987), The World Economy, National Institute Economic Review, vol 119
  83. 1987Wren-Lewis, S. (1987), Introducing exchange rate equations into a world econometric model, National Institute Economic Review, vol 119
  84. 1986Hall, S., Henry, S.G.B. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1986), Manufacturing stocks and forward looking expectations in the UK, Economica, vol 43
  85. 1986Hall, S., Henry, S.G.B., Payne, J. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1986), Forecasting employment: the role of forward looking behaviour, Journal of Forecasting, vol 22 pp 435-445
  86. 1986Harvey, A., Henry, S.G.B., Peters, S. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1986), Stochastic trends in dynamic regression models: an application to the employment output relationship, Economic Journal, vol 96 pp 975-985
  87. 1986Henry, S.G.B. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1986), Fiscal expansion and unemployment: the labour market, National Institute Economic Review, vol 115
  88. 1986Whittaker, R., Wren-Lewis, S., Blackburn, K. and Currie, D. (1986), Alternative financial policy rules in an open economy with rational and adaptive expectations, Economic Journal, vol 96 pp 680-695
  89. 1986Wren-Lewis, S. (1986), An econometric model of UK manufacturing employment using survey data on, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol 1 pp 297-316
  90. 1985Wren-Lewis, S. (1985), The quantification of survey data on expectations, National Institute Economic Review, vol 113
  91. 1985Wren-Lewis, S. (1985), Expectations in Keynesian macroeconomic models, in Keynes: Methodological Issues, ed(s) H. Pesaran and T. Lawson, Croom Helm
  92. 1984Wren-Lewis, S. (1984), Omitted variables in equations relating prices to money, Journal of Applied Economics, vol 16 pp 483-496
  93. 1984Wren-Lewis, S. (1984), On nominal government expenditure targets, Journal of Macroeconomics, vol 6 pp 89-95
  94. 1984Wren-Lewis, S. (1984), The roles of expected output and liquidity in explaining recent productivity movements, National Institute Economic Review, vol 108
  95. 1984Henry, S.G.B. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1984), The aggregate labour market in the UK: some experiments with rational expectations models, in Contemporary Macroeconomic Modelling, ed(s) P. Malgrange and P. Muet, Blackwell
  96. 1983Wren-Lewis, S. (1983), On the validation of cost push: a comment, Journal of Public Economics, vol 22 pp 123-125
  97. 1983Wren-Lewis, S. (1983), Labour supply and wealth: some macroeconomic policy implications, Manchester School, vol 51 pp 1-15
  98. 1983Wren-Lewis, S. (1983), Employment, Investment and Stockbuilding, in Employment, Output and Inflation, ed(s) Britton, A., Heinemann
  99. 1982Wren-Lewis, S. (1982), Intermediate targets and macroeconomic policy, National Institute Economic Review, vol 99
  100. 1980Wren-Lewis, S. (1985), Private sector earnings and excess demand from 1966 to 1980, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol 47 pp 1-18
  101. 1978Wren-Lewis, S. (ed) (1978), Treasury Macroeconomic Model Technical Manual, mimeo, H.M.Treasury
  102. C. Favero, A. Missale, V.A. Muscatelli, P. Natale and P. Tirelli, Cambridge University Press
  103. Exchange Rates, in Macroeconomic Modelling of the Long Run, ed(s) C. Hargreaves, Edward Elgar

Positions & affiliations31

  • University of Oxford
  • HM Treasury
  • National Institute of Economic and Social Research
  • British Labour Party Economic Advisory Committee
  • Member of Advisory Panel, Council for Budget Responsibility, Slovakia. 2013-
  • Member of Panel of Economic Experts, Office for Budget Responsibility. 2011-
  • Professor of Economics, University of Oxford and Fellow of Merton College. 2007-
  • External examiner, undergraduates, Bristol University. 2003-2007
  • Visiting Professor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. 2003-4
  • H.M.Treasury. 2002-06
  • Themes Assessment, Economic and Social Research Council. 2000
  • Consultant to Bank of England. 1999-2004
  • External examiner, MSc at Warwick University. (Previous external examining for Queen Mary College and Birkbeck MSc). 1999-2002
  • Committee of Macroeconomics, Money and Finance Research Group. 1998-2011
  • Member of the Council, Royal Economic Society. 1998-2003
  • Member of the O.N.S. Academic Panel. 1997-2002
  • Co-Chairman of Royal Economic Society Conference Committee. 1996-1998.
  • Professor of Economics, University of Exeter. 1995-2006
  • Governor of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research. 1995-
  • Member of the Research Grants Board of the Economic and Social Research Council. 1992-1996
  • Royal Economic Society Conference Programme Committee. 1992-1995.
  • Executive Committee of Scottish Doctoral Programme. 1990-1995
  • Chair in Macroeconomic Modelling, University of Strathclyde. 1990-95
  • Senior Research Fellow, Head of Macroeconomic Research, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, (NIESR). 1988-90
  • Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research. 1986-1997
  • Senior Research Officer, NIESR. 1986-87
  • Temporary lecturer at Queen Mary, London and halftime at NIESR. 1985-86
  • NIESR (fulltime). 1981-85
  • Economic Advisor, HM Treasury. 1980-81
  • Senior Economic Assistant, Forecasting Team, HM Treasury. 1976-80
  • Economic Assistant, HM Treasury. 1974-76

Credentials & fellowships1

  • Cambridge Journal of Economics, Canadian Journal of Economics, Economic Journal, Economica, European Economic Review, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Journal of Applied Statistics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of Industrial Economics, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Manchester School, Review of Economic Studies, Scandinavian Journal of Economics.